This report represents the final results of a research project conducted within the framework of the ESPON 2000-2006 programme, partly financed through the INTERREG programme.
Low birth rates and migratory movements – within, as well as between nations – have resulted in population redistribution within the European territory. Birth rates are so low that a population decrease would result if not for immigration. For some regions, relatively high total fertility rates are not enough to match the number of deaths so they experience a natural population decrease while other regions with low total fertility rates have a natural population increase. This paradoxical phenomenon is a consequence of the skewed age and
gender structures in differing regions that often is a result of migratory movements. Even if ageing is a less general ingredient in the population development in Europe, this process has progressed to various stages in different regions and nations. Ageing and its relation to
the labour force is also one of the most discussed topics today with respect to labour market problems.
Population development presents both prerequisites and restrictions on functional labour markets and polycentric development, as well as for the spatial development. Ageing, skewed gender and age structures with their consequences on the composition of the labour force have also focused on ‘replacement migration’ as a means to solve future labour market problems within the European territory. Here, as always when migration is discussed, both push and pull factors are of great importance, but function differently for various categories of migrants with respect to age, education and skills. Also the enlargement of the European Union by the East European countries will have effects on the ‘east-west migration’ on the European territory, especially then at the border regions. The fear of mass migration is perhaps overestimated, but the free movement of people is likely to have effects on the demographic structure in differing parts of Europe.
Another population problem – that also has spatial consequences for the European development – is the depopulation that is occurring in some European regions – especially in the peripheral areas. A combination of lower birth rates, skewed age and gender structures and out-migration result in a process where some regions – literally – are dying out. The result will be a redistribution of population from less favoured areas to more favoured, e.g. from rural and sparsely populated areas to local and regional centres and especially to metropolitan areas. These processes have different characteristics in various parts of Europe. The common denominator, however, is a continuous depopulation of the some European regions.
